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Recession

A Contingency Strategy for an Uncertain Year!

At the start of 2012 we know that another difficult year will be ahead of us with many uncertainties! Few know what is exactly is going to happen in 2012 and taking into account the worst case scenario with the possible collapse of the Euro a very difficult time could lay in front of us. This could affect both well run export companies and local companies servicing the Irish market. So as owner / managers, HR managers & advisors we need to ask what actions do we need to take to be prepared for what might happen? What we need to what is a Contingency Strategy for the current climate. What themes should a Contingency Strategy contain? I will list a number of themes: -

Jan 31, 2012

The Road to Recovery

Corporate restructuring need not be confined to companies who are facing difficulties and improved profitability is a key driver for restructuring in many businesses. Leading corporate recovery experts examine how restructuring can have a positive impact on improving a company’s overall output.

Jan 31, 2012

Credit Management - Excellent filing and document retrieval systems

When we get caught up in complicated credit management systems structures, strategies and metrics. When we are looking at risk categorisation, collection methodology, smart provisioning and scorecard capabilities for loss prediction and the vast array of software packages that are available to deliver complex information intelligently and workable on a day to day basis, sometimes the simple basics are forgotten and cast aside as too simple or too mundane to deserve your attention as a busy manager or business owner.

Jan 31, 2012

Irish Jobs Data Weak But Not Entirely Unexpected

Irish jobs data for the third quarter of 2011 were disappointing but not entirely surprising. On a seasonally adjusted basis, they show there were 20.5K fewer numbers at work, a drop of 1.1% compared to the previous quarter. This represents a significant deterioration compared to the decline of 4K (-0.2%) reported in the 2nd quarter.

Dec 13, 2011

Key economic news 2011

The Irish economy has stabilised growing 2% in the 1st half of 2011. Virtually all analysts forecast growth of between 0.5%-1% this year. The IMF, EU Commission, Irish Central Bank– all expect GDP growth of 0.5%-1% this year. Following three years of negative growth, the trend is now upwards[1].

Nov 28, 2011

Minister for Small Business calls on banks legal departments not to frustrate loan application process

SMEs must be granted realistic time period to complete legal requirements between loan approval & loan expiry date. John Perry T.D., Minister for Small Business, has welcomed the publication of the Central Banks revised Code of Conduct for Business Lending to Small and Medium Enterprises (SME Code).

Nov 15, 2011

20% of small firms expect to recruit permanent staff in the next three months

“The key priority is to keep companies in business, improve competitiveness, generate confidence in the economy and create the enterprise environment where job losses can be stabilised and jobs can be preserved and created.”

Nov 1, 2011

September another difficult month for retailers, with Motor sales continuing to experience post-scrappage scheme weakness

September was another poor month for Irish retailing as total sales volumes fell by 0.8% m/m last month. The weakness was led by the car sector, as sales at motor trades outlets dived by 3.4% m/m.

Nov 1, 2011

Small business policy should be at the heart of the EU’s economic recovery plan

On the commencement of EU SME Week (3rd-9th October), organised by the EU Commission, the Chairman of the Small Firms Association, Ian Martin has emphasised the SME business priority and stated that small business policy should be at the heart of the EU’s economic recovery plan.

Oct 4, 2011

Employment continued on a downward trajectory in Q2

The Quarterly National Household survey provides a comprehensive update on the Irish labour market. Whilst the survey is not the most timely measure on the labour market, its does provide the official figures for employment and unemployment levels, along with a detailed sectoral analysis. Today’s QNHS, which covers the second quarter, confirmed that the Irish labour market remains in a fragile condition, as indicated by the continued fall in employment.

Sep 20, 2011

Introduction of €100 Household Charge

As many people will be aware, the Memorandum of Understanding with the EU/ IMF effectively commits Ireland to the introduction of a property tax in 2012 and an increase in same in 2013. Hence the Minister for Environment, Community and Local Government has announced plans to introduce a new flat-rate €100 ‘household charge’ to take effect from 2012, as a prelude to a more structure property tax regime which is expected to follow circa 2014.

Aug 23, 2011

Small Business Continues With Pay Freeze in Effort to Sustain Jobs

Patricia Callan, Director of the Small Firms Association, today launched the SFA’s Quarterly Pay Survey results, which show that pay levels continue to be frozen in the majority of small businesses around the country, with pay increases only being given as a clear reward for productivity and innovation improvements. This trend is set to continue into 2012.

Aug 23, 2011

Irish House Prices Continue To Tumble

Irish residential property prices posted a large 2.1% monthly drop in June to stand some 12.9% lower than a year earlier. According to the Central Statistics Office, the cumulative drop since the September 2007 peak in Irish house prices is now 42%.

Aug 9, 2011

'Perfect Storm' Coming for Global Economy in 2013

Weakening economic conditions will come together in 2013 and create a "perfect storm" of global weakness, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.

Jul 11, 2011

Sovereign debt concerns overshadow modest Eurozone recovery

One year into the sovereign debt crisis, we have reached a new stage. What was unthinkable one year ago, namely Greece requiring new financial assistance and having to restructure its sovereign debt, is now unavoidable according to Ernst & Young’s Summer Eurozone Forecast (EEF).

Jun 28, 2011

Chink of light on jobs front as more small firms recruit rather than let people go this quarter

The Small Firms Association (SFA) has released the findings of its Summer Small Business Survey. Commenting on the figures, SFA Director, Patricia Callan stated, “the overall survey results show a continuing improvement in the sentiment of small business owner-managers; however many remain under serious pressure.”

Jun 28, 2011

ECB Rate Rise Seems Certain in July

ECB signals rate hike next month but attempts to keep some ‘wriggle room’.

Less hawkish tone of ECB comments and non-threatening forecasts make markets less fearful of how far and how fast rates may rise through remainder of 2011 and into 2012.

Uncertainty about Greece clearly argues against comments or action that might unnerve markets.

ECB rates may not reach 2% until early 2012 but markets may be too complacent in this view.

Weak Irish inflation suggests ‘real’ rates much higher here than elsewhere in the Eurozone.

Jun 13, 2011

Clear mismatch in government policy on bank lending destroying small businesses

The Small Firms Association has commended the fourth quarterly report from John Trethowan, of the Credit Review Office, stating that it is “a 100% accurate assessment of what needs to be done to create a workable banking system for SMEs.” Patricia Callan, SFA Director, commented: “The Government and banks respectively should commit to implementing all of the recommendations immediately, and the Credit Supply Clearing Group should be reconstituted to assist with and to monitor their implementation”.   

May 31, 2011

Credit Unions to consolidate – survival depends on it

The Credit Union sector is bracing itself for significant change and reform. “Given the expected adverse stress test results and the challenges facing Ireland’s 400 plus individual Credit Unions, amalgamation of Credit Unions into larger entities are seen by Central Bank strategists as the way to go. The roadmap is not yet clear but one possible method suggested is a hub and spoke approach, the alternatives include a county wide approach” said Colm O’Grady at an event yesterday hosted by Russell Brennan Keane, Chartered Accountants and Business Advisers.

May 17, 2011

Construction firms cut jobs and purchasing in April amid falling workloads.

Irish construction activity continued to decline during April as new business decreased further. In turn, firms lowered their input buying and employment levels during the month. Meanwhile, input cost inflation accelerated for the third successive month. The Ulster Bank Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a seasonally adjusted index designed to track changes in total construction activity – fell for the second month running to 43.7 in April from 46.1 in March. The reading signalled a substantial reduction in activity that was the strongest in 2011 so far. Activity at construction firms in Ireland has now decreased in each of the past forty-seven months.

May 17, 2011

Download attachment(s): [ Construction_firms_cut_jobs_and_purchasing_in_April_amid_falling_workloads.pdf ]

New government boosts confidence amongst CFOs

Over three quarters (78 percent) of Irish CFOs believe the new government will have a positive impact on international confidence in the Irish economy, according to the Deloitte Q1 2011 CFO Survey. Respondents to the survey also felt that the new government would have a positive impact on political reform (76 percent), job creation (76 percent) and fiscal policy (65 percent).

May 17, 2011

Growing Concerns on Pension Funding

KPMG Survey Highlights Growing Concerns on Pension Funding -  A new survey from KPMG reveals the deepening concern among employers in relation to the costs of funding pensions and also with respect to employees’ ability to adequately fund their retirement. Olivia Lynch, tax partner at KPMG in Ireland, says: “There is no doubt that concerns have been heightened by the Finance Act and may only deteriorate further, given the references in the programme for Government.”

May 3, 2011

Retail Sales - March 2011

Essentially flat overall retail sales in March disguises mixed performance in sub-sectors. Irish retail sales were essentially flat in March. While total sales volumes rose only by a very modest 0.1% m/m, at least they didn’t give back any of the 3.1% rise in February. As always, we pay particular attention to the so-called ‘core’ retail sales

May 3, 2011

Sharp Rise In Irish Consumer Sentiment In March

Irish consumer sentiment rose sharply and unexpectedly in March. The KBC Bank/ESRI consumer sentiment index increased to 59.5 from 50.3 in February. This is the strongest reading since last August. In addition, the change between February and March was the third largest monthly rise in the fifteen year history of the survey. The March result means that most of the sharp deterioration in the sentiment index that occurred in the latter stages of 2010 has been reversed.

Apr 19, 2011

Ireland - Looking up when things are down

Irish businesses rank second in the world when it comes to optimism for exports in 2011, according to a global survey. The Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), which covers 39 countries worldwide, shows that German and Irish PHBs rank joint second (41%) in expectations for exports in 2011.

Feb 8, 2011

Irish Economic Growth – Down, But Not Out

For a small, extremely open economy like Ireland where exports amount to 90% of GDP, the early phases of cyclical recovery generally tend to stem from an uplift in global economic conditions. That dynamic is clearly playing out in the case of Ireland which is visibly benefiting from an international recovery which is almost two years old.

Feb 8, 2011

Download attachment(s): [ Ulster Bank RoI Economic Outlook Feb 2011 ]

Small Firms - Engines of Recovery in 2011

Mr Ian Martin, Chairman of the Small Firms Association, said that “2010 has probably been the most scrutinised and debated economic year in the history of the State. However, despite the economic environment, it is heartening that the SFA’s business sentiment survey shows that confidence has increased throughout the year amongst members.”

Jan 11, 2011

Third consecutive better-than-expected month for tax receipts

ax revenues came in ahead of the of the Department of Finance’s monthly plan for the third consecutive month in October. This marks a clear improvement in performance relative to earlier in the year when the tendency was to disappoint. The monthly overshoot in receipts in October totalled €284mn.

Nov 9, 2010

Ernst & Young Eurozone forecast - Autumn 2010

Eurozone growth was surprisingly strong in Q2 2010, but this momentum is likely unsustainable as the economy is now facing strong headwinds.

Oct 12, 2010

Are Banks Becoming Shadow Directors

With the ever changing economic climate and particularly the dramatic slowdown in the property market, banks have had to become more flexible in relation to the repayment of facilities provided to borrowers.

Oct 12, 2010

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